Climate Scenario and Event-Based Storylines

Introduction

Climate scenarios describe plausible future states of the climate system under different assumptions, while event-based storylines provide a physically self-consistent narrative of how a specific event could unfold. Together they offer a structured way to connect climate science to preparedness decisions under uncertainty.

Climate Scenarios

Scenarios explore the range of possible futures by varying drivers such as emissions pathways, socio-economic conditions, and exposure. Rather than predicting a single outcome, they bound the space of what could happen, helping decision-makers stress-test plans against a spectrum of conditions.

Event-Based Storylines

Event-based storylines, as proposed by Sillmann et al. (2021), link climate projections to preparedness decisions by tracing a coherent chain of cause and effect for a specific event. They map impact chains across scales, offering a credible narrative for handling both direct and indirect impacts while maintaining scientific rigor. This approach complements scenario analysis by grounding abstract projections in concrete, actionable event narratives.