https://icpac-igad.github.io/e4drr/tag/climate-scenario/Climate ScenarioHugo Blox Builder (https://hugoblox.com)en-usTue, 21 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000https://icpac-igad.github.io/e4drr/media/logo.svghttps://icpac-igad.github.io/e4drr/tag/climate-scenario/https://icpac-igad.github.io/e4drr/blog/2025-01-21-scenario-storylines/Tue, 21 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000https://icpac-igad.github.io/e4drr/blog/2025-01-21-scenario-storylines/<h2 id="introduction">Introduction</h2> <p>Climate scenarios describe plausible future states of the climate system under different assumptions, while event-based storylines provide a physically self-consistent narrative of how a specific event could unfold. Together they offer a structured way to connect climate science to preparedness decisions under uncertainty.</p> <p> <figure > <div class="flex justify-center "> <div class="w-100" ><img alt="Event-based storylines versus climate scenarios" srcset=" /e4drr/blog/2025-01-21-scenario-storylines/image_hu814215194da2418396670ddc88b4d379_301454_9df6e5f6f400b567a5bc35fe96d394a4.webp 400w, /e4drr/blog/2025-01-21-scenario-storylines/image_hu814215194da2418396670ddc88b4d379_301454_db5c181b51d8fae190c1ef1ec48c9a2a.webp 760w, /e4drr/blog/2025-01-21-scenario-storylines/image_hu814215194da2418396670ddc88b4d379_301454_1200x1200_fit_q95_h2_lanczos_3.webp 1200w" src="https://icpac-igad.github.io/e4drr/e4drr/blog/2025-01-21-scenario-storylines/image_hu814215194da2418396670ddc88b4d379_301454_9df6e5f6f400b567a5bc35fe96d394a4.webp" width="760" height="550" loading="lazy" data-zoomable /></div> </div></figure> </p> <h2 id="climate-scenarios">Climate Scenarios</h2> <p>Scenarios explore the range of possible futures by varying drivers such as emissions pathways, socio-economic conditions, and exposure. Rather than predicting a single outcome, they bound the space of what could happen, helping decision-makers stress-test plans against a spectrum of conditions.</p> <h2 id="event-based-storylines">Event-Based Storylines</h2> <p>Event-based storylines, as proposed by Sillmann et al. (2021), link climate projections to preparedness decisions by tracing a coherent chain of cause and effect for a specific event. They map impact chains across scales, offering a credible narrative for handling both direct and indirect impacts while maintaining scientific rigor. This approach complements scenario analysis by grounding abstract projections in concrete, actionable event narratives.</p>